The real reason Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-N.Y.) is fighting so hard for the Democratic presidential nomination is because she understands, not that her rival for the party’s nod, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), is un-elect able. No. She understands what most scholars–political scientists and historians–understand, and that is that the Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the apparent Republican nominee, cannot win in November.
That’s right. The foremost rules in determining the outcome of presidential elections are all lined up against the incumbent, Grand Old Party nominee. Those factors are: Is there an unpopular war? Is the country in a recession? And, are there scandals connected to the incumbent administration?
Aside from a few loose words here and there, and that shooting-his-friend-in-the-face thing involving Vice President Dick Cheney, this administration has been relatively scandal free. But when it comes to the war and the economy, the Bush administration has problems in those areas (as the saying goes), “in spades.”
The country–indeed the whole world which feeds itself servicing the drunken sailor called America–is in a recession right now, and it looks to be potentially quite a bad recession. Can you say, “The worst The Great Depression?”
We are in the midst of an unpopular war which is very expensive in blood and treasure. Casualties have now topped 4,000 U.S. military personnel dead, and more than 25,000 severely wounded. Hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis have also been slaughtered by trigger-happy U.S. soldiers, more concerned about getting home safely than they are about “winning” the hearts of the Iraqi people to support whatever “cause” the U.S. may be championing. The soldiers know this illegal and immoral war cannot be “won” by the U.S. How do you “win” an earthquake?
So, all these recent opinion polls showing Sen. McCain possibly winning over either Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton are grossly inaccurate, according to Dr. David Bositis, a Senior Research Fellow at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
“So we’re going to have a presidential election where the incumbent candidate, at the time of a recession, and potentially quite a bad recession, is going to win by 10 points, while there is a very unpopular war, which is his signature issue? That’s going to happen? If that’s what’s going to happen, it’s never happened before in American history, and it goes totally contrary to any of the patterns that have been observed in American presidential elections for the past 100 years,” Dr. Bositis said in an interview.
The fact of the matter is that Sen. McCain, who would become the oldest president ever elected, cannot win what Sen. Obama is already calling a “Third Bush Term,” and Sen. Clinton knows this. That’s why she is fighting so hard, throwing everything at her disposal, including the kitchen sink at Sen. Obama.
Yes, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) was correct when he endorsed Obama. He said Sen. Clinton and those around her have a sense of “entitlement” about their chances of going back to the White House. They will stoop to anything, and stop at nothing in order to win the nomination, because they understand that the Democratic nomination is an all-expenses-paid ticket to the presidency for the next four years.
Sen. McCain is a political dinosaur, and he’s old enough to have personally known Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican president. On top of that, his mind is not that sharp. Remember when he couldn’t distinguish between Iraq and Iran, between Sunni and Shiite Muslims?
Can you imagine the Obama-McCain Presidential Debates? If Saturday Night Live joked that the news media has spent the primary campaign fluffing Sen. Obama’s pillow on his campaign plane, then they could joke about adult diapers, Geritol, and rubbing liniment for Sen. McCain.
“Once you get into the general election, I think that Barack Obama will be so far, head and shoulders above John McCain in terms of performance, that it’s likely to be clear who the better candidate is,” Dr. Ronald Walters, Professor of Political Science at the University of Maryland said in an interview. “I just don’t think that John McCain has got the stuff to stand up to him. When they get into debates, when they get out there explaining public policy, I just don’t think he’s sharp enough.”
So, forget about the Rev. Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and the upcoming Obama-Farrakhan-Swift-Boat campaign. American voters are not likely to re-elect a Republican president or House or Senate, no matter who the Democrats nominate.
So forget about White working class misgivings about Sen. Obama. “They’re going to vote their pocketbook, even if they have misgivings about Obama, even on race, they’re not going to vote for four more years of Republican politics,” said Dr. Bositis. Most White voters, he said, will realize that if Sen. McCain is elected, “they might as well move their family to the local shelter.”